Ali Larijani, currently serving as the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, has been in this pivotal role for the second time since August 2025. His extensive political career includes significant positions such as Minister, Speaker of Parliament, and multiple presidential candidacies, showcasing his deep-rooted influence in Iranian politics.
Despite his experience, Larijani’s standing is complicated. He is often viewed as a pragmatic conservative by Western powers, a label that reflects his approach to negotiations with them. However, this pragmatism does not shield him from criticism within Iran. Political scientist Mahnaz Shirali has gone so far as to describe him as “a criminal against humanity,” highlighting the contentious nature of his legacy.
Azadeh Kian, a professor emeritus of sociology at Paris-Cité University, emphasizes the precariousness of Larijani’s authority, stating, “It is not obvious that his orders will actually be followed, particularly by the Revolutionary Guards, who are a state within a state.” This skepticism raises questions about the effectiveness of his leadership and the extent of his influence over Iran’s powerful military faction.
The Revolutionary Guards, known for their significant autonomy, may not adhere to Larijani’s directives, complicating the landscape of Iranian governance. Observers note that while Larijani may have the political weight to negotiate a departure from the current regime, he is unlikely to embody the future of Iranian power.
As tensions between Iran and Western nations continue, Larijani’s role in diplomatic negotiations remains crucial. His past experiences in these discussions could either bolster his position or further alienate him from the Iranian populace, who have expressed disdain for his leadership.
Moreover, Kian warns of the potential dangers Larijani faces, suggesting that if foreign adversaries like the Americans or Israelis decided to eliminate him, he would meet a swift end, similar to others who have crossed powerful figures in the region.
As the political landscape in Iran evolves, the future of Ali Larijani remains uncertain. His ability to navigate the complexities of Iranian politics and maintain influence amidst growing dissent will be closely watched by both domestic and international observers.
Details remain unconfirmed regarding the extent of his influence over the Revolutionary Guards and the broader implications for Iran’s political stability.
