On a fateful day in early October, news broke that the attacks had crippled 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity, a staggering loss that could take between three to five years to repair, according to QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi. The implications of this disruption are profound, not just for Qatar but for nations like India, which is heavily dependent on these energy supplies.

How it unfolded

The situation escalated rapidly as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime passage for oil and gas shipments, became increasingly perilous due to ongoing Iranian hostilities. Reports indicated that this vital route, through which 90% of India’s LPG imports transit, was rendered nearly impassable. As a result, India found itself in a precarious position, vulnerable to significant disruptions in its energy supply.

In the wake of these attacks, European gas prices surged by 35%, reflecting the global anxiety surrounding the LNG market’s stability. Brent crude prices also saw a sharp increase, briefly rising over 10% to above $119 per barrel. The ripple effects of these events are being felt across the globe, as countries scramble to secure alternative energy sources.

For India, the urgency to find new LNG and LPG suppliers has never been greater. “We are trying to pick up the cargoes from other sources,” said Sujata Sharma, an energy analyst closely monitoring the situation. The Indian government is actively seeking alternatives to mitigate the impact of this crisis, but with 85% to 90% of its oil imports coming from the Middle East, the country remains at the mercy of geopolitical tensions.

In an effort to bolster its energy security, India has ramped up domestic LPG production from refineries by about 36%. However, this increase may not be sufficient to offset the losses from Qatar, especially if the disruption through the Strait of Hormuz continues. As energy expert Sumit Ritolia noted, “If the disruption through Hormuz persists, Indian buyers may need to procure higher-priced spot cargoes or reduce consumption.” This scenario paints a grim picture for a nation already grappling with rising energy costs.

The broader implications of this LNG supply disruption extend beyond immediate energy needs. India had previously called for the avoidance of targeting civilian infrastructure, including energy infrastructure, across the region, highlighting the precarious balance of peace and stability that hangs in the balance. As the situation evolves, the stakes remain high for all involved, with the potential for further escalation looming ominously on the horizon.

As we stand today, the future of Qatar’s LNG supply and its impact on global markets remains uncertain. The damage inflicted on Ras Laffan has created a multi-year supply loss in the LNG market, and the world watches closely as nations navigate this complex web of energy dependence and geopolitical strife. The hope is that diplomatic efforts can restore stability, but for now, the crisis continues to unfold, leaving many to ponder the long-term consequences of these recent events.

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The government has decided to prioritize gas supply for household PNG and CNG, which may lead to a significant curtailment for industrial users. This shift could impact companies like Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL), Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL), and Gujarat Gas Limited.

Gujarat Gas has approximately 49% of its total volume supplied to industrial and commercial consumers, making it particularly vulnerable to the changes. In contrast, Mahanagar Gas Limited has around 16% and Indraprastha Gas Limited about 13% of their total gas distribution allocated to these segments.

Analysts from Nomura estimate that a 20% curtailment in gas supply to industrial and commercial segments could result in a 3% impact on volumes for both MGL and IGL. However, Gujarat Gas is expected to face a more significant challenge, with an estimated 10% impact on its volumes due to its higher exposure to the industrial and commercial sectors.

In Noida, the minimum waiting period for booking a domestic LPG cylinder refill has increased to 25 days, up from 21 days. This change affects the approximately 10 lakh LPG connections in the area, alongside 12 lakh connections in Ghaziabad, where around 15,000 are classified as commercial.

Despite these challenges, the supply of PNG and CNG in the region has continued without interruption. The gas supply network in western Uttar Pradesh is connected to the Hazira-Vijaipur-Jagdishpur pipeline, which is operated by GAIL (India) Limited.

Authorities have issued directives to ensure that domestic consumers do not face inconvenience in LPG supply, aiming to mitigate the impact of the curtailment on households.

The government’s decision to prioritize gas supply for essential segments may lead to a scarcity of gas for industrial and commercial use, raising concerns among stakeholders in the energy sector.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the long-term implications of these changes on the overall gas supply landscape and the affected companies.

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Prior to recent developments, the Indane gas distribution system was functioning under a 21-day booking period for LPG cylinders, which many consumers found manageable. However, the situation has drastically changed following accusations of fraud from a Bengaluru-based customer.

Decisive Moment and Changes

Madhu Menon, the customer in question, alleged that cylinders were booked in his name but were not delivered to him. He stated, “Got this message saying my last cylinder was delivered on 25 Feb and I can’t order again till late March. Except I haven’t ordered a new cylinder since early 2025! Then I discovered clear fraud!” This revelation has prompted the Indian government to extend the LPG booking period from 21 days to 25 days, in response to the growing concerns.

Immediate Effects on Consumers

The increase in the booking period comes at a time when domestic and commercial LPG cylinder prices were hiked just two days prior to this announcement. This has raised alarms among consumers, particularly in Bengaluru, where hoteliers have warned of a potential temporary shutdown of eateries due to disruptions in LPG cylinder supply.

Expert Perspectives

Officials have assured the public that there is sufficient supply of LPG available in the country, even amidst these distribution challenges. Siddaramaiah, a prominent political figure, remarked, “Their decision was right,” referring to the government’s response to the situation. This indicates a recognition of the need for immediate action to address consumer concerns.

As the situation unfolds, the implications of these fraud allegations and the subsequent changes in the LPG booking process will be closely monitored by both consumers and authorities alike. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the extent of the fraud and its impact on the overall distribution network.

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Recent Allegations

A Bengaluru-based customer, Madhu Menon, has accused Indane of fraud in the distribution of gas cylinders. Menon claimed that cylinders were booked in his name but were not delivered to him. He stated, “Got this message saying my last cylinder was delivered on 25 Feb and I can’t order again till late March. Except I haven’t ordered a new cylinder since early 2025! Then I discovered clear fraud!” This alarming revelation has raised questions about the integrity of the distribution process.

Government Response

In light of these issues, the Indian government has increased the LPG booking period from 21 days to 25 days. This change aims to address the growing concerns over supply and ensure that customers have adequate time to manage their bookings.

Price Hikes

Adding to the distress, domestic and commercial LPG cylinder prices were hiked just two days prior to the announcement of the new booking period. This has further complicated the situation for consumers who are already facing challenges with the supply.

Supply Assurance

Despite these challenges, officials have assured that there is sufficient supply of LPG available in the country. However, the allegations of fraud have led to significant anxiety among consumers and businesses alike.

Impact on Hoteliers

Bengaluru hoteliers have expressed their concerns about potential disruptions in LPG cylinder supply, warning of a temporary shutdown of eateries if the situation does not improve. The ongoing issues have placed additional pressure on the hospitality sector, which is still recovering from previous challenges.

Expert Opinions

Siddaramaiah, a prominent political figure, commented on the situation, stating, “Their decision was right,” referring to the government’s response to the ongoing issues. This endorsement highlights the need for swift action to restore consumer confidence.

As the situation unfolds, the allegations of fraud and the subsequent government measures will be closely monitored by both consumers and industry stakeholders. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the full extent of the fraud allegations and their impact on the broader LPG distribution framework.

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